Storylines to look at in Week 11: Russell Wilson & George Pickens are a match made in fantasy soccer heaven

The day I lengthy feared was coming, lastly got here.

My sons problem me to play video video games on a regular basis. And I get it. Since I’m dad, I’m the goal. But I’ve spent extra hours gaming than they’ve been on this earth. I (assume I) know extra. And but, I discovered myself watching a third-place end in a recreation of “Super Smash Bros.” I’m fairly certain my controller had important drift to it, however I’ll maintain the L.

There’s all the time extra nuance or context we have to contemplate. Like, for me, I ought to’ve realized my boys had been honing their abilities earlier than daring me to a match. Watching Week 10 felt related. I might’ve thought Joe Flacco generating multiple turnovers would’ve introduced Anthony Richardson again into our lives. I was wrong. Russell Wilson can’t presumably hold getting away with moonballs to maintain the Steelers offense going. Yep, fallacious once more.

However, it’s extra about what we are able to pull from the highest storylines to assist us make lineup selections. So, with a month earlier than the playoffs, let’s dive into the headlines to tease out the takeaways we’ll want for Week 11.

Nico Collins: the savior of the Texans’ offense?

My knee-jerk response to C.J. Stroud’s second interception right here was Nico Collins would’ve come down with the ball:

Well, perhaps my intrusive thought was extra coping than the rest. Sure, Collins has eight inches on Tank Dell. But Stroud lofting the ball eliminates any debate about his WR’s bodily stature. Plus, even a cursory take a look at the Texans’ QB would present he hasn’t performed his greatest ball over the past month.

• EPA per DB: 0.05 (Weeks 1-4), -0.15 (Weeks 7-10)

• Completion Percentage Over Expected: +0.6%, -8.0%

• Explosive Pass Rate: 17.8%, 13.6%

With Collins (and Stefon Diggs), Stroud had two top-10 finishes within the first month of the season. His 263.5 passing yards per recreation had been the fifth-most of any passer. However, hindsight being 20/20, there have been warning indicators.

Stroud confronted stress on greater than 25.0% of his dropbacks in each recreation. Defenses keyed in on Houston’s ailing offensive line and despatched 5 or extra rushers to maintain Stroud from getting snug. Only Baker Mayfield (42.6% blitz price) noticed extra defenders making an attempt to interrupt by way of the road. We dismissed the considerations as Stroud continued to make magic on third down. But now, he has fewer choices downfield. And the shifts in offensive play-calling have made his scenario even worse.

• Early-Down Passing Rate: 54.3% (Weeks 1-4), 44.9% (Weeks 7-10)

• Early-Down Rushing Success Rate: 40.0%, 34.2%

• Air Yards per Attempt: 7.6, 9.7

Joe Mixon’s workload has elevated from 22.5 to a whopping 26.8 touches per recreation. However, the Texans’ run-blocking abilities (or lack thereof) have lower his yards per contact by 16.3%. As Houston has gotten farther behind the sticks, Stroud’s goal depth has climbed, growing his volatility as a passer. And the offensive line woes have solely elevated. Stroud’s stress price has been above 40.0% in his final 4 begins, and he’s taken a number of sacks in every (eight[!] in Week 10). So, including a WR even nearly as good as Collins won’t seem like a lift until he plans on getting right into a three-point stance.

But he was nonetheless the WR2 total in PPG for a motive.

The Texans used quick-game ideas (passes with a mean time to throw underneath 2.5 seconds) on 44.0% of Stroud’s dropbacks in Weeks 1-4. Unsurprisingly, Collins led the staff in targets on these ideas (23) at a clip of two.97 yards per route run. Put one other method, he turned these 23 seems to be into 14 first downs. That was whereas additionally creating explosives on 45.0% of the opposite makes an attempt that got here his method. We can’t challenge when Stroud’s safety will enhance, however together with his WR1 again (and advantageous matchups in opposition to Dallas and Jacksonville on the schedule), we must always see the duo again within the top-12 dialogue quickly.

The winds of change are blowing in Chicago

Jaxon Smith-Njigba warned us about Shane Waldron. However, it took the vibes hitting rock bottom for the Bears to make a change. Normally, I’d say a swap on offense is nice. Just take a look at the Saints. But for Chicago, there’s multiple problem protecting my optimism at bay.

Nate does a superb job of highlighting Williams’s strengths above. We gained’t see it within the boxscore, however the rookie QB already has command of the offense earlier than the snap (heavy emphasis on “before the snap”). Williams can acknowledge defensive alignments and shift the safety (which sometimes backfires) to maintain the offense transferring. And but, even in that video, we see one of many issues plaguing the Bears.

Williams having to create out of construction has grow to be one thing he must do in some unspecified time in the future in each drive. Of his classmates, solely he’s seen probably the most blitzes in apparent passing conditions. However, the offensive line isn’t the (solely) root trigger.

To go along with a high-pressure price, Williams takes longer to launch the ball. His 2.85-sec common time to throw in apparent passing conditions ranks because the ninth-slowest. The delay signifies he’s not working the offense as designed. And, given how his receivers have reacted to their QB being underneath duress, there’s a disconnect between Williams and the play-calling.

Even on the two-man route above, the receivers are well-covered far previous the sticks. Williams has Cole Kmet as a checkdown for minimal achieve however opts to attend for the harder throw. Even when the scenario is impartial, he’s in survival mode. But it’s not as if, when the play breaks down, we get a greater model of Williams.

• EPA per Play (on +2.5 sec throws): -0.23 (thirty third of 36 qualifiers – min. 120 dropbacks)

• Scramble Rate: 10.5% (sixteenth)

• Pressure-to-Sack Ratio: 31.5% (4th)

His classmates have recognized how to reply to stress since they turned starters. Jayden Daniels has scrambled 32 instances (many of the rookies) when defenders get to him. Bo Nix (16) and Drake Maye (14) have additionally restricted unfavourable performs through the use of their ft. Williams (12) has held his floor to the staff’s detriment. And with Chicago’s upcoming schedule, we’d want greater than a training change to encourage some confidence.

If one of many Bears’ WRs had been the point of interest of the offense, I’d have them as a FLEX choice by way of their gauntlet of NFC matchups over the subsequent 5 weeks (with the 49ers in Week 14). But all three earned six targets final week. Keenan Allen’s slot position seems to be secure, however his 2.6 yards of separation are a profession low. With a number of components of the offense needing to enhance, leaving Bears’ pass-catchers in your bench is the perfect transfer till we see issues flip round.

George Pickens is unstoppable with Russell Wilson

George Pickens’ standing as Pittsburgh’s WR1 was by no means in query. The Steelers despatched Diontae Johnson right down to Carolina. Pickens’ solely competitors was third-rounder Roman Wilson and FA cast-offs Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek. So, by way of six weeks, seeing Pickens with top-10 utilization metrics wasn’t a shock.

• Target Share: 28.9% (Third)

• Air Yard Share: 46.4% (fifth)

• Yards per Route Run: 2.28 (eighth)

While nonetheless making big plays downfield, Pickens bore all of the marks of a top-12 receiver. But his fantasy scores instructed a special story. At 9.9 PPR PPG, Pittsburgh’s WR1 was no higher than Christian Kirk (9.9), aka Jacksonville’s WR2. Ironically, Wan’Dale Robinson (13.1) stood head and shoulders above the Steelers’ playmaker. However, Pickens’ obtrusive deficiency was the identical in each circumstances: touchdowns. Despite all of the explosive catches, he was but to seek out the tip zone.

Luckily, all it took was a well-timed QB change to unravel that downside.

Admittedly, it’s solely been three video games, and Pickens has scored in two of the three. But there’s no denying Russell Wilson’s affect on the offense.

• Passing Yards per Game: 245.7 (Wilson), 184.3 (Fields)

• EPA per Dropback: 0.19, 0.04

• Offensive Yards per Drive: 32.3, 28.8

To be clear, nothing’s modified for Pickens. He’s nonetheless seeing seven seems to be per contest and has amassed over 40.0% of the air yards. But Pittsburgh has accrued extra yards, run extra red-zone performs and, subsequently, scored extra factors with Russell Wilson underneath middle. It’d be simple to say Pickens is simply driving Mr. Unlimited’s wave of manufacturing. However, their two ability units are the right match.

Play-action shot performs to the boundary are Wilson’s superpower. Catching them are Pickens’. Since Week 7, the 2 (together with contributions from the ancillary choices) have moved the ball on opposing defenses one explosive achieve after the subsequent. Mix in some powerful runs from Najee Harris, and also you’ve bought an unbeatable offense. But I’ll put a slight damper on any long-term expectations.

Per TruMedia, Wilson has generated 114 passing yards on perimeter throws (from the sideline to a few yards in). That’s the seventh-highest mark on the season amongst all starters. He’s gotten there in three begins. But OK, let’s increase the aperture to go from the numbers to the sideline (nine-yard distance). Here, you’ll discover 72.6% of Wilson’s passing yards. For some QBs, we have now to gauge their margin for error qualitatively. In Wilson’s case, we already realize it’s 9 yards on both aspect of the sphere.

Expecting any three-game pattern to proceed is a tricky ask. Regardless, Pickens is a low-end WR1 for the remainder of the season. If Wilson regresses, Pickens’ targets and air yards give him a viable flooring. And with matchups in opposition to the Ravens’ and Bengals’ secondaries on the schedule, we needs to be rating him inside the highest 12 for the foreseeable future.

Atlanta’s RB1 is Bijan Robinson, proper?

I ought to’ve left the “right?” half off the part header. There’s no debate right here. Bijan Robinson is the RB1 for Atlanta. Watching him play emphasizes how his imaginative and prescient, burst and energy work in tandem to hold defenders into the tip zone. Accordingly, his superior metrics align with the tape.

• Rushing Success Rate: 54.2% (1st out of 18 qualifiers – min 50.0% speeding share)

• Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 23.2% (4th)

• Adjusted Yards after Contact per Attempt: 3.6 (tenth)

On the one hand, we would like environment friendly RBs. Whether their effectiveness is a product of run-blocking or their intrinsic talents, we are able to count on them to profit from their work. On the flip aspect, generally we’d quite take projectable workloads. And 19.6 touches per recreation (seventh-most) is an RB I’d need on my roster.

But then I see baffling personnel modifications in high-leverage conditions that make me pause.

No, Robinson wasn’t injured. He hadn’t run the ball right down to the one-yard line on an explosive play, both. And but, OC Zac Robinson noticed match to ram Tyler Allgeier into the Saints’ defensive entrance three straight instances. What made the choice even higher was Robinson coming in on fourth down and scoring. However, I gained’t let a couple of goal-line carries deter me from valuing Robinson as a high-end RB1.

• Target Share (final 5 video games): 17.5% (2nd)

• Yards per Route Run: 1.71 (Third)

• Receiving Yards per Game: 36.0 (4th)

I talked final week about thresholds for top-three RBs. You’re both The Juggernaut as a runner or earn work as a rusher and receiver. Despite Allgeier inflicting a panic each few weeks, Robinson now finds himself in good firm. He’s averaged 5.2 targets per recreation whereas sustaining a maintain on 56.0% of the totes. And for these questioning about his goal-line utilization, Robinson did take the entire touches from contained in the five-yard line again in Week 7. Besides, with Atlanta’s upcoming schedule, Robinson’s receiving work would be the edge that retains him within the high 12.

• Week 11 at DEN: Ninth-fewest (speeding YPG allowed to RBs), 4th-most (PPR factors allowed to RBs)

• Week 13 vs LAC: Seventh-fewest,Twelfth-most

• Week 14 at MIN: Third-fewest,Eleventh-most

The matchups lend themselves to a multi-faceted RB. Before you ask, Allgeier has earned multiple goal in a recreation simply twice this yr and hasn’t seen a cross thrown his method since Week 7. Allgeier nonetheless has contingent worth however its Robinson’s backfield. And together with his dual-threat capability, he’ll keep as an RB1 for the remainder of the season.

Christian McCaffrey got here again, however all of his fantasy factors didn’t (but)

I perceive a variety of players had been ready two and a half months for final Sunday. Christian McCaffrey’s return was one of many high storylines heading into the weekend. I’d be prepared to guess fantasy seasons hinged on a powerful debut. However, 16.7 PPR factors don’t really feel that nice.

Bucky Irving (17.7 factors) and Kareem Hunt (17.0), two guys off the waiver wire, scored extra. Actually, each Tampa RBs had greater scores than the consensus 1.01. However, there’s extra to remove from CMC’s first recreation again than the field rating.

Let’s begin together with his speeding workload.

McCaffrey’s 13 carries had been good for 68.0% of the backfield alternatives. Behind him, Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo mixed for 2 speeding makes an attempt. Otherwise, it was the McCaffrey present as if we had been again in 2023. And don’t fear. The 39 yards (or 3.0 yards per carry) caught my eye, too. But there’s some context to his day as a runner.

Pause the video above at 0:01 seconds and rely what number of defenders are at or inside 5 yards of the road of scrimmage. I counted eight, and it wasn’t an unusual sight for the 49ers. McCaffrey bumped into stacked containers on 53.8% of his makes an attempt. On the season, 32 different RBs have had related contact shares and comparable stacked field charges. As a gaggle, that they had a mean 40.0% success price on 4.3 yards per carry. McCaffrey had a 30.8% success price whereas averaging 3.0 YPC. Given his time away, I’m prepared to present him every week to get again on observe.

Besides, his pass-catching acumen is what stole the present anyway.

McCaffrey was the 49ers’ WR2 on Sunday with seven targets. That was more than what Deebo Samuel and Ricky Pearsall (i.e., the actual WRs) saw. But it’s not just the number of looks CMC got but the type and their effect on the offense.

• Passing Success Rate (on early downs): 52.5% (Weeks 1-9), 70.8% (Week 10)

• EPA per Dropback: 0.19, 0.57

• Yards per Passing Play: 9.8, 11.6

As shown above, HC Kyle Shanahan can send McCaffrey deep down the field on a wheel route to get him the ball. He doesn’t have to be a short-area option. Subsequently, the passing game moves more efficiently, takes more pressure off Brock Purdy and sets them up for more manageable third downs.

With McCaffrey back, San Francisco could rotate in more of its exotic looks to pick up chunk gains. It’s not just about what McCaffrey can do with the ball in his hand. But what his presence forces defenses to honor. So, despite the lack of big results, the workload is a strong indicator of San Francisco getting its RB1 back, and the production will soon follow.