The 2024 NFL playoffs are right here, and the No. 1 seeds in every convention — the Chiefs within the AFC and the Lions within the NFC — will obtain first-round byes. The remaining 12 groups will play in subsequent weekend’s three-day wild-card spherical. Two video games might be performed Saturday; three are slated for Sunday; and the motion will culminate in a Monday night time contest that might be broadcast by ESPN/ABC.
Which groups are prepared for deep playoff runs? Which ones have considerations that may influence their wild-card weekend matchups? And which gamers might play massive components of their groups attending to the Super Bowl?
Here’s what every of the 14 playoff groups should do to achieve Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. Our NFL Nation workforce reporters picked out strengths and weaknesses for every franchise, and analytics author Seth Walder recognized a key stat to know for every membership. Then Ben Solak gave his warmth verify (score from 1 to 10) for every playoff squad. (Odds are through ESPN BET.)
AFC:
1. Chiefs
2. Bills vs. 7. Broncos
3. Ravens vs. 6. Steelers
4. Texans vs. 5. Chargers
NFC:
1. Lions
2. Eagles vs. 7. Packers
3. Buccaneers vs. 6. Commanders
4. Rams vs. 5. Vikings
AFC
Odds to win Super Bowl: +350
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 31.7%
First recreation outlook: The Chiefs get the AFC’s prime seed for the second time in three seasons and the fifth time since Patrick Mahomes turned the beginning quarterback. They will play within the divisional spherical in opposition to the lowest-seeded wild-card workforce remaining (the No. 4 Texans, No. 5 Chargers, No. 6 Steelers or No. 7 Broncos) on both Saturday, Jan. 18, or Sunday, Jan. 19. The Chiefs have a mixed 5-1 file in opposition to these groups, sweeping each video games with the Chargers, beating each Houston and Pittsburgh in a stretch from Dec. 21-25 and splitting two video games with the Broncos. — ESPN
Reason for hope: A revitalized offense. The return of receiver Hollywood Brown, the event of rookie wideout Xavier Worthy and All-Pro guard Joe Thuney’s play at left deal with has the offense trying just like the Chiefs hoped it could all season. Kansas City performed two of its finest offensive video games of the season in Weeks 16 and 17, its final regular-season video games with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the starters. “We built up to the perfect spot,” Mahomes stated. “We’ve gotten better and better before Hollywood got here. Xavier started playing better, being more confident … it kind of sets everybody perfectly in their roles.”
Reason for concern: Pass safety. The safety has improved since Thuney moved from left guard to left deal with, however Mahomes was nonetheless sacked 36 occasions this season, essentially the most he has ever taken. The Chiefs are nonetheless struggling to generate massive go performs as a result of Mahomes being compelled to throw the ball shortly. Right deal with Jawaan Taylor is the third-most penalized participant within the league with 17 penalties, and people penalties have been one thing the Chiefs have struggled to beat this season. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Chris Jones recorded 62 go rush wins this season, essentially the most by a defensive deal with. It’s really essentially the most by so much. The Broncos’ Zach Allen completed with 52, whereas the Seahawks’ Leonard Williams completed third with 40. I carry this up as a result of it has been a quiet season for Jones on the sack entrance (solely 5), however make no mistake, the Chiefs nonetheless have a game-wrecker at defensive deal with who might make an enormous distinction within the playoffs. — Walder
Heat verify score: 10. The Chiefs proved their immortality time and time once more this season, they usually enter the postseason with a first-round bye, home-field benefit and a wholesome Brown and Isiah Pacheco. How might this not be a ten? — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +475
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 21.8%
First recreation outlook: The Bills will begin their sixth straight postseason by internet hosting the No. 7-seeded Broncos on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Buffalo didn’t play the Broncos this season, with their final recreation in opposition to Denver leading to a 24-22 Monday night time loss at dwelling in Week 10 of the 2023 season. That recreation ended with the Broncos kicking a walk-off subject purpose after the Bills have been penalized for 12 males on the sector on a game-winning miss the earlier play. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Quarterback Josh Allen. The favourite for MVP put collectively his finest common season to this point and has traditionally thrived within the postseason. Allen led the Bills’ offense to 12 video games scoring 30 factors or extra this season, and Buffalo has dedicated solely eight turnovers, tied with the 2019 Saints for the fewest in a season since 1933. “I don’t like to make comparisons; I played with Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford. Those guys are special in their own right,” defensive finish Von Miller stated. “But this year, Josh is just doing something totally different, and he’s not forcing it. He’s not trying too hard, he’s not looking for it; it’s just him.”
Reason for concern: Third-down protection. The Bills’ protection has been inconsistent this season and has allowed the fourth-highest third-down conversion share within the NFL (43.8%). The Bills will not be capable of primarily depend on forcing turnovers in opposition to the robust offenses they are going to face within the AFC playoffs. Buffalo should be capable of get off the sector on third down. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Allen has the bottom sack fee (2.6%), fourth-lowest interception fee (1.1%) and fifth-lowest fumble fee (0.8%) amongst QBR-qualified quarterbacks. When we consider Allen, we regularly consider large runs (he’s second to Jayden Daniels amongst quarterbacks in EPA on designed carries and scrambles) and his elite arm. But maybe his finest ability is avoiding errors and unfavourable performs. It’s an enormous a part of why he is distinctive and, probably, the NFL MVP. — Walder
Heat verify score: 8. The Bills did not have a lot to play for in Week 18, however they ended the season profitable 10 of their final 12 video games and with arguably the perfect offense in soccer. They really feel deservedly nice getting into the postseason. — Solak
0:16
James Cook powers in a 1-yard Bills dashing TD
James Cook powers his means by the protection for a 1-yard rush and secures a Bills landing.
Odds to win Super Bowl: +550
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 25.9%
First recreation outlook: The Ravens will play a rubber match in opposition to the AFC North rival Steelers in Baltimore on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). They break up their two regular-season conferences, because the Steelers gained 18-16 in Pittsburgh in Week 11 and the Ravens gained the rematch 34-17 in Baltimore in Week 16 to take the AFC North lead for good. — ESPN
Reason for hope: The Ravens have been taking part in their finest ball on the finish of the season. They gained their closing 4 video games, outscoring opponents 135-43 in a stretch that included victories over the playoff-bound Steelers and Texans. While quarterback Lamar Jackson and the NFL’s No. 1 offense get the headlines, Baltimore’s protection has held groups to a league-low 15.4 factors per recreation over the previous seven weeks. “Our plan now is to peak at the right time,” cornerback Marlon Humphrey stated, “and I feel like we’re doing that.”
Reason for concern: Jackson’s surprisingly poor playoff monitor file. He is the one quarterback with a number of MVPs who hasn’t captured a Super Bowl title. Jackson has a 2-4 postseason file, throwing six interceptions and dropping three fumbles. In his 4 playoff losses, the Ravens have averaged solely 10.5 factors and have not exceeded the 20-point mark. “The story’s still being written,” coach John Harbaugh stated of Jackson, “and there’s a lot more to accomplish.” — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: In Weeks 1-10, the Ravens ranked twenty ninth in EPA allowed per opponent dropback (0.15). But in Weeks 11-18, they ranked first (minus-0.15) in the identical class. I’m stealing this remark from Solak, however the Ravens have employed Kyle Hamilton as a security on 69.3% of his snaps since Week 11. Before that, he break up time amongst security, slot nook and linebacker, taking part in security on solely 26% of his snaps. That probably is not the solely issue, however the numbers say it issues. Baltimore has been higher when Hamilton is aligned at security than when he is not. — Walder
Heat verify score: 9. Jackson made an important December MVP push, the protection has been glorious because the secondary reshuffling, and the Ravens gained the AFC North over Pittsburgh. If not for the Zay Flowers harm, this may be an ideal 10. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +6000
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 5.7%
First recreation outlook: The Texans made the playoffs for the second straight season and can host the No. 5-seeded Chargers on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS). This is the eighth time since 2011 that the Texans have hosted a recreation on wild-card weekend. Houston is 5-2 in these video games, most lately defeating the Browns 45-14 final season. — ESPN
Reason for hope: The protection. Houston’s D has held opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 54.7, the seventh-lowest within the NFL. The Texans put relentless strain on quarterbacks resulting in 49 sacks, tied for fourth within the league. Danielle Hunter is tied for fifth within the league with 12 sacks, and second-year edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. has 11. The unit additionally has Pro Bowl cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and rookie security Calen Bullock, who every has 5 interceptions — tied for sixth within the NFL.
Reason for concern: Offensive inconsistency. The Texans’ offense is 18th in scoring (20.5 offensive factors per recreation), so if the protection is not locking opponents down, Houston may very well be in bother. One look that has given quarterback C.J. Stroud points is split-safety protection, as he has a 36.0 QBR in opposition to break up safeties (twenty eighth within the NFL). The offensive line hasn’t precisely helped its quarterback, as Stroud has been pressured 35.8% of the time this season, fourth highest within the NFL. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: The Texans rank twenty fourth in EPA per play since Week 10. Anyone watching the NFL this season is aware of that Houston has struggled on offense. But wrestle is placing it too mildly. The Texans have been unhealthy. In reality, the passing recreation has been down a lot in that span that it has a worse EPA per play rank than the working recreation. And that is one other factor everybody is aware of about Houston — it will probably’t run the ball! — Walder
Heat verify score: 5. The Texans did not have the common season they anticipated, however beating up on the Titans positive is a pleasant option to finish issues. So lengthy as they’ve Stroud, Nico Collins and that go rush, they’ve an opportunity. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +2500
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 7.7%
First recreation outlook: The Chargers are within the playoffs for the second time previously three seasons and can play at Houston on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS). The Chargers have by no means performed the Texans within the playoffs and are making solely their fourth playoff look since 2010. Los Angeles’ final playoff recreation did not go effectively, because it squandered a 27-0 first-half lead and misplaced 31-30 to the Jaguars on a walk-off subject purpose within the 2022 wild-card spherical. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Jim Harbaugh. In Harbaugh’s earlier NFL teaching stint, the 49ers made three NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl in 4 seasons. By comparability, the Chargers have performed in solely 4 convention championships in franchise historical past, the newest coming through the 2007 season, and one Super Bowl. Harbaugh’s earlier playoff success, plus the turnaround he has engineered in getting a workforce that was 5-12 in 2023 into the postseason, offers L.A. hope.
Reason for concern: Inconsistent offense. Offense has been the Chargers’ Achilles’ heel all season, notably within the second half of video games. The Bolts common 10.3 second-half factors, rating nineteenth within the league. L.A.’s league-leading scoring protection has helped masks the offense’s second-half disappearing act, however a continuation might knock the Chargers out of the playoffs shortly. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: The Chargers rank within the prime six in EPA allowed per designed run play and per dropback. It’s notably spectacular as a result of they’ve finished it with out a tremendous go rush — they rank twenty second in go rush win fee. L.A.’s fairly excessive 7.1% sack fee might be extra a perform of a formidable secondary. Derwin James Jr. has the bottom yards per protection snap allowed (0.5) amongst gamers with 200 protection snaps and primarily strains up as a slot nook — however exterior nook Kristian Fulton and rookies Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart have been stable, too. — Walder
Heat verify score: 5. The decline of the protection has turned the Chargers from AFC playoff spoiler to probably one-and-done, however the Justin Herbert-Ladd McConkey connection is a enjoyable one. Mixed vibes right here. — Solak
0:17
Justin Herbert throws a TD to DJ Chark Jr.
Justin Herbert throws a 6-yard landing go to DJ Chark Jr. to offer the Chargers a 17-10 lead heading into halftime vs. the Raiders.
Odds to win Super Bowl: +7500
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 3.8%
First recreation outlook: The Steelers will play on the rival Ravens, dealing with No. 3-seed Baltimore on Saturday within the wild-card spherical (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). Pittsburgh is 3-1 in opposition to the Ravens within the playoffs however misplaced the newest assembly within the 2014 wild-card spherical. The Steelers enter this matchup on a five-game playoff dropping streak relationship to a divisional spherical victory over the Chiefs within the 2016 playoffs. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Russell Wilson. Despite a latest string of pink zone turnovers, Wilson offers the offense the form of juice it has persistently lacked since Ben Roethlisberger’s 2019 elbow harm. In 11 begins, Wilson has accomplished 19 of 41 makes an attempt of greater than 20 air yards for 4 touchdowns and one interception. A yr in the past, three Steelers quarterbacks mixed to finish solely 15 of 52 makes an attempt on such passes for 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
Reason for concern: Defensive lapses. Missed assignments and communication shortcomings have contributed to the protection, usually one of many stingiest models within the league, giving up a mean of 380.5 yards and 27.3 factors throughout Pittsburgh’s four-game late-season slide. The Steelers are tied for the NFL lead with 33 takeaways, however they managed solely 5 throughout their dropping streak after forcing three in every of the prior 4 contests. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: With extensive receiver George Pickens on the sector, the Steelers averaged 0.07 EPA per dropback this season. Without him, that quantity dropped to minus-0.06. For context, the primary quantity is roughly equal to the Rams’ passing offense with Matthew Stafford. The latter is the Cowboys, who’ve began Cooper Rush in almost half of their video games. On-off splits could be deceptive, however I believe Pickens’ influence is fairly clear. He permits downfield throws from Wilson — Pittsburgh’s common depth of goal is 7.1 yards with Pickens on the sector, 6.0 with out him — which the Steelers might want to have postseason success. — Walder
Heat verify score: 1. The Steelers limp into the postseason on a four-game dropping streak with a banged-up T.J. Watt, continued Pickens drama and lingering uncertainty as to who the cornerback starter is reverse Joey Porter Jr. That’s discouraging stuff. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +6000
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 3.4%
First recreation outlook: The Broncos’ first playoff recreation since profitable Super Bowl 50 will come on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS), after they head to Buffalo to face the No. 2-seeded Bills. The Broncos have not performed Buffalo within the playoffs because the 1991 season, when the Jim Kelly-led Bills defeated the John Elway-led Broncos 10-7 en path to Super Bowl XXVI. Denver has misplaced 4 straight highway playoff video games relationship to a victory at Pittsburgh within the 1997 AFC Championship Game. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Defense. Even with some latest bobbles — they gave up 27.3 factors per recreation from Weeks 13 by 17 earlier than shutting out the Chiefs on Sunday — the Broncos are third within the league in general defensive effectivity, first in anticipated factors added on protection, first in sacks and third in scoring protection. Denver has scored 5 touchdowns and two safeties on protection this season. Getting again cornerback Riley Moss, who missed Weeks 13 by 16 with a knee harm, to stabilize the nook place reverse Pro Bowler Pat Surtain II ought to assist.
Reason for concern: Three-and-outs. The Broncos’ offense has the third-highest share of drives which have resulted in a three-and-out this season — a whopping 26.3%. The brief possessions have resulted in misplaced momentum and an incapacity to forestall opponents from flipping subject place. The Bo Nix-led offense has additionally put Denver’s protection in compromising positions, forcing it to return to motion shortly. Denver averages 29:46 in possession, twentieth within the league. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos play extra man protection than every other workforce (56%) and let Surtain — who has the bottom yards per protection snap (0.6) amongst exterior corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats — take away one aspect of the sector. Surtain achieved his success by goal deterrence — his 11% goal fee is the third lowest amongst exterior corners with at the very least 200 protection snaps — and ball-hawking (4 interceptions). The Broncos often stick Surtain on the opponent’s finest receiver. In Week 17, Surtain lined up reverse Ja’Marr Chase 77% of the time. Surtain held the NFL’s main receiver to 27 yards as the first defender, per Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Heat verify score: 7. Denver’s arrow has been steadily pointing up all season, and the Broncos enter the postseason with an important protection and numerous offense. The ceiling is low with a rookie quarterback on the helm, however the vibes are good. — Solak
NFC
Odds to win Super Bowl: +450
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 40.3%
First recreation outlook: The Lions are the NFC’s No. 1 seed for the primary time in franchise historical past and can host the lowest-seeded wild-card winner (No. 4 Rams, No. 5 Vikings, No. 6 Commanders and No. 7 Packers) within the divisional spherical on Jan. 18, or Jan. 19. Detroit hasn’t performed Washington but however is 5-0 in opposition to the opposite three opponents, sweeping two video games in opposition to Minnesota and Green Bay and beating the Rams in extra time within the season opener. — ESPN
Reason for hope: The offense. The Lions can overwhelm opposing defenses with a wide range of choices. Veteran QB Jared Goff has been on prime of his recreation, incomes beginning quarterback honors for the upcoming Pro Bowl. Running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, together with receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, made the Lions the primary workforce in NFL historical past to have two working backs and two receivers who every topped 1,000 scrimmage yards in a season. Montgomery’s standing is up within the air after struggling a Week 15 knee harm, although.
Reason for concern: An injury-riddled protection. When wholesome, the Lions have been dominant at occasions. But a slew of accidents to key gamers comparable to edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, defensive deal with Alim McNeill and cornerback Carlton Davis III has taken a toll. Corner Terrion Arnold was additionally damage in Week 18. The Lions compensated within the common season, beating the 49ers 40-34 in Week 17 regardless of giving up 475 yards, however in addition they gave up 559 yards to the Bills in a 48-42 loss in Week 15. Can they win shootouts in opposition to playoff-caliber competitors? — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Since Week 7 (their first recreation after Hutchinson’s harm), the Lions have blitzed 41% of the time previous to Sunday night time’s recreation, highest within the NFL. It’s their answer for having no actual go rush with out Hutchinson, and to assist make up for all the accidents the protection has confronted. The Lions nearly actually must depend on the blitz within the postseason, too, as a result of their splits with and with out the blitz are dramatic. Since Hutchinson’s harm, Detroit’s protection ranks third in EPA allowed per dropback when blitzing previous to Sunday night time. It drops to twenty seventh when not blitzing. — Walder
Heat verify score: 8. The warmth verify cannot be too excessive given the defensive worries, however a house win over a divisional rival to safe the first-round bye and home-field benefit? That’s fairly the springboard into the postseason. — Solak
0:23
Jahmyr Gibbs breaks free for Lions’ opening TD
Jahmyr Gibbs cruises untouched for his seventeenth landing of the yr because the Lions take the lead late within the first quarter.
Odds to win Super Bowl: +650
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 15.5%
First recreation outlook: The Eagles get a rematch of their season opener, as they are going to host the No. 7-seeded Packers within the wild-card spherical on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). Philadelphia gained the preliminary assembly 34-29 in Sao Paulo, Brazil, because of 109 yards and two touchdowns from working again Saquon Barkley in his Eagles debut. The Eagles have not gained a playoff recreation since beating the 49ers within the NFC Championship Game after the 2022 season. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Elite personnel. The Eagles boast arguably the perfect roster in soccer, which features a top-tier offensive line, MVP contender and a pair of,000-yard rusher Barkley, a dynamic receiver duo in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and a extremely ranked protection. It’s not solely a gifted group however a bodily one, giving it an actual likelihood to plow its means into the Super Bowl.
Reason for concern: Slow begins. The Eagles failed to attain within the first quarter of their first seven video games and 10 occasions general through the common season. Philadelphia improved in that space down the stretch however nonetheless ranked twenty first in opening-quarter factors (3.7). Falling behind in opposition to good groups within the playoffs might show pricey. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Prior to resting their starters in Week 18 the Eagles ranked first in each EPA per designed keep it up offense and EPA allowed per designed keep it up protection. Philadelphia dominates within the floor recreation on either side of the ball. On offense, rush yards over expectation runner-up Barkley (plus-549) and quarterback Jalen Hurts (together with all these tush push conversions) paved the way. On protection, linebackers Nakobe Dean and Zack Baun each rank within the prime seven amongst linebackers in run cease win fee. — Walder
Heat verify score: 8. Everything is rosy in Philadelphia, as long as Hurts is able to come out of the concussion protocol and play subsequent week. And if he cannot, Tanner McKee in all probability has a playoff win in him. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 11.1%
First recreation outlook: The Buccaneers made the playoffs for the fifth straight season and can begin by internet hosting the No. 6-seeded Commanders on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Fox). This is one other rematch of a season opener, as Tampa Bay cruised previous Washington 37-20 at Raymond James Stadium. This is the fourth straight yr the Bucs have hosted a wild-card recreation, as they beat the Eagles 32-9 on this spot final season. — ESPN
Reason for hope: A flexible, high-powered offense. The Bucs are averaging 28.6 offensive factors — fourth most within the league and third most in franchise historical past, trailing solely the Tom Brady-led Super Bowl workforce in 2020 and one other Brady-led workforce in 2021. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has 41 landing passes, tied for second within the NFL. Mayfield additionally has the third-highest completion share (71.4%) and third-most passing yards (4,500). And Tampa Bay is averaging 149.2 dashing yards, the fourth most within the league.
Reason for concern: The protection has struggled with well being and consistency. It has not often had a wholesome squad this season, particularly within the secondary. While the Buccaneers have given up solely 17.0 factors per recreation since their Week 11 bye — second finest within the league — solely a type of opponents had a profitable file. Over the course of the season, Tampa Bay has allowed 249.3 passing yards per recreation, the fourth most within the league. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Buccaneers recorded extra YAC over expectation (plus-498) than every other workforce this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. NGS outputs an anticipated variety of yards after the catch primarily based on the positioning, pace and path of all 22 gamers on the sector when the catch is made. And the Bucs have 4 gamers with at the very least 90 YAC over expectation: RB Bucky Irving (123), WR Chris Godwin (112), RB Rachaad White (99) and TE Cade Otton (90). YAC accounted for 54% of Tampa Bay’s receiving yards, the seventh most within the league. — Walder
Heat verify score: 2. It took a a lot bigger effort to beat the Saints in Week 18 than anticipated, and that go protection is the offender — however Mayfield had one other shaky recreation, too. The Buccaneers are within the massive dance by the pores and skin of their enamel. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +3500
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 5.9%
First recreation outlook: The Rams will make their second straight playoff look and sixth in Sean McVay’s eight seasons as head coach after they host the Vikings on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+). Los Angeles gave the Vikings one among their three losses this season, defeating Minnesota 30-20 in Week 7 at SoFi Stadium. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Drastic defensive enchancment. The Rams’ protection gave up two touchdowns in Weeks 15 by 17 because it made a playoff push after a 1-4 begin. After permitting a mean of 23.6 factors in its first 13 video games, Los Angeles allowed 24 whole within the three video games previous to clinching the NFC West. A giant motive for the development is the play of its defensive entrance, together with first-round decide Jared Verse, who was named to the Pro Bowl because the Rams’ lone consultant.
Reason for concern: An extraordinarily inconsistent offense. After scoring 44 factors in opposition to the Bills in Week 14, the Rams’ offense scored that mixed whole in Weeks 15 by 17. Los Angeles has particularly struggled within the first quarter this season, failing to attain a landing in 13 of its 16 video games wherein quarterback Matthew Stafford and the beginning offense performed. The Rams have averaged 21.6 factors per recreation this season, good for under twentieth within the NFL. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: Wide receiver Puka Nacua has a 40% goal fee. Nacua is within the midst of a historic season … however since he missed six video games, the totals aren’t gaudy. But the actual fact he will get the ball thrown to him 40% of the time he runs a route is ridiculous. That’s the very best goal fee for a participant with at the very least 200 routes run in a season since at the very least 2007 — way back to ESPN’s route information extends. Nacua’s 3.7 yards per route run rank third in that span (behind Tyreek Hill in 2023 and Steve Smith Sr. in 2008), too. — Walder
Heat verify score: 4. The final aggressive video games we noticed the Rams play have been 12-point, 19-point and 13-point outings in opposition to non-elite defensives — so I’m anxious. But they have been all wins with good defensive performances from Chris Shula’s younger group — so I’m not too anxious. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +800
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 10.1%
First recreation outlook: The Vikings will play on the Rams within the wild-card spherical on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+) after falling to the Lions on Sunday night time. The solely non-Detroit loss the Vikings have suffered this season got here at SoFi Stadium, because the Rams defeated Minnesota 30-20 in Week 7. These groups have not performed one another within the postseason because the 1999 divisional spherical, when the then-St. Louis Rams outscored the Vikings 49-37 on their option to a Super Bowl crown. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Balance. The Vikings can win in a wide range of methods, as their offense and protection every rank among the many NFL’s prime 10 in scoring. That will increase the variety of methods they will earn a playoff win. It might come through a giant passing day from quarterback Sam Darnold to receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Or the protection might carry the workforce with a sequence of well-timed takeaways, after tying for first within the league with 33. In different phrases, it could take an all-22 effort from an opponent to knock Minnesota from the postseason.
Reason for concern: The Vikings are 9-1 in one-score video games for a number of causes, together with well-timed subject objectives from Will Reichard and John Parker Romo, who served as a four-game harm alternative. Reichard opened the season by changing his first 14 subject purpose makes an attempt earlier than struggling a quadriceps harm. Since then, Reichard has made 10 of 16 kicks. The Vikings nonetheless have full confidence in Reichard and do not imagine that he’s having any lingering results from his harm. But taking a rookie kicker into the playoffs could be nerve-wracking, particularly when he enters the postseason in a little bit of a hunch. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Prior to Sunday night time, Darnold had a 4.8% completion share over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, second highest amongst quarterbacks. That quantity represents a dramatic enchancment. Entering this season, Darnold had a minus-2.0% profession completion share over expectation. Some of the change probably could be attributed to his robust extensive receivers, but it surely’s additionally a illustration of higher accuracy. Darnold’s off-target fee dropped from 18% earlier than this season to 12% in 2024, regardless of throwing barely deeper passes this season in contrast together with his previous. — Walder
Heat verify score: 7. The Vikings might have carried a ten had they crushed the Lions on Sunday night time, however that is nonetheless a superb workforce on either side of the ball. Few groups have gained three straight playoff video games on the highway, but when anybody can do it, I’d again these Vikings. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 5.3%
First recreation outlook: The Commanders return to the playoffs for the primary time since 2020 after they play on the No. 3-seeded Buccaneers on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Peacock). Tampa Bay was additionally Washington’s opponent the final time the franchise made the postseason, because the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers defeated the then-Washington Football Team within the wild-card spherical en path to a Super Bowl title. Washington is 1-2 in opposition to the Buccaneers within the playoffs. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Quarterback Jayden Daniels. He will not win the MVP, however few gamers have been extra priceless to their workforce. Daniels has thrown for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns and rushed for 864 yards and 6 extra scores. He has a knack for large performs on the proper time and has led 4 game-winning drives, with three landing passes approaching the ultimate play from scrimmage. Daniels ranks second within the NFL with 12 landing passes within the fourth quarter and extra time.
Reason for concern: The run protection. Washington has the lowest-ranked run protection of any playoff workforce and solely two groups, playoff or in any other case, have been worse this season. Only two allowed extra yards per carry than the Commanders (4.8), too. Washington has fared higher of late, holding Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson to a mixed 20 carries and 35 yards within the second half throughout Weeks 16 and 17. But if a workforce with a prime quarterback can be in a position to run on the Commanders, it will likely be powerful for Washington to advance. — John Keim
Stat to know: Daniels recorded 59 whole EPA on designed runs and scrambles. That’s greater than every other participant this season and reveals simply how necessary Daniels’ dashing manufacturing has been to the Commanders. Twenty-six p.c of Washington’s third- and fourth-down conversions this season have come through QB run, which ranks third within the league behind the Eagles and Bills. But once you take away performs with one yard to go, the Commanders have used the quarterback run to transform 22% of their third and fourth downs, the very best mark within the NFL — Walder
Heat verify score: 3. Save for the last-second win over the Eagles in Week 16, the again half of the season has largely been shaky for the Commanders, and the Week 18 first-half flop from the beginning offense in opposition to Dallas does little to assuage considerations. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +1600
FPI likelihood to make Super Bowl: 11.9%
First recreation outlook: The Packers get an opportunity to settle the rating from their Brazilian season opener, as they are going to head to Philadelphia to play on the Eagles on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). The Packers have been in an identical place final season, as they upset the NFC East champion Cowboys because the No. 7 seed within the wild-card spherical. Green Bay additionally gained its final playoff assembly between the groups, profitable in Philadelphia within the 2010 wild card en path to the Super Bowl XLV title. — ESPN
Reason for hope: The Packers do two issues extraordinarily effectively — run the ball and power turnovers. The Packers are ranked within the prime 5 in each classes — dashing yards per recreation (146.8) and whole takeaways (31). They have relied closely on Pro Bowl working again Josh Jacobs to hold the load (1,329 dashing yards) and have one of many NFL’s interception leaders in security Xavier McKinney (seven). That’s a superb mixture for playoff success.
Reason for concern: The Packers have not crushed most of the NFC’s playoff groups. They’re a mixed 0-5 in opposition to the Eagles, Lions and Vikings. Their finest win got here on the NFC West champion Rams, however that was again in Week 5 when the Rams have been riddled with accidents, particularly on offense. “There’s a margin of error that is razor thin,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur stated, “and when you’re playing good teams, you got to be better.” — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: Jordan Love ranks fifth in QBR with a 68.7. It has been a quiet climb for Love’s effectivity on a Packers workforce that has leaned on the bottom recreation this season. But after starting the season with six consecutive video games with at the very least one interception, Love hasn’t thrown one previously seven. Since Week 12, Love has the very best QBR (83.0) within the NFL. It’s just like final season, when Love additionally had the very best QBR within the league from Week 12 on. — Walder
Heat verify score: 2. Green Bay was proper to play for the sixth seed in Week 18, however leaving the sport with accidents to Christian Watson and Love is worrisome. Scary occasions in Green Bay till we get extra information. — Solak
