Novo Nordisk (NVO) reported its latest GLP-1 item, CagriSema, gives approximately 22.7% weight reduction, yet that had not been sufficient to encourage financiers, triggering a sell-off of the supply.
“We are encouraged by the weight loss profile of CagriSema. This was achieved even though only 57% of patients reached the highest CagriSema dose,” said Martin Holst Lange, executive vice president for development at Novo Nordisk, in a statement Friday.
The results came from a trial of nondiabetic adults with obesity. A second late-stage trial for diabetics is underway, with results expected in the first half of 2025.
Novo traded down greater than 20% Friday early morning, its biggest loss given that 2002. The CagriSema information increased rivals, such as Eli Lilly (LLY), whose supply bumped up greater than 6%.
The results are significantly better than those of Novo’s current GLP-1s, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for weight loss, which provide around 15% weight loss. But Novo’s management had been bullish on CagriSema, setting the bar at 25%.
“This is below the Street’s expectation of 25% and more comparable to the ~21% forZepbound It appears the protocol for the CagriSema trial included flexible dosing, and this led to only ~57% of patients reaching the highest dose of the product/contributed to the lower-than-expected avg weight loss,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note to clients Friday.
The weight loss provided by CagriSema in Phase 3 trials beats current leading products for Novo but only slightly beats Lilly’s GLP-1s, Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss, which provide 21% weight loss on average — which is why investors aren’t impressed.
“The data are well-below expectations given NVO mgmt.’s weight loss efficacy bar of 25%,” Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger wrote in a note to clients Friday.
JPMorgan analysts also noted in a separate note Friday that Lilly’s candidate, retatrutide, which is in late-stage trials, could further erode Novo’s lead.
yf-1pe5jgt”>FILE PHOTO: A view shows the logo of Novo Nordisk at the company’s office in Bagsvaerd, on the outskirts of Copenhagen, Denmark, March 8, 2024. REUTERS/Tom Little/File Photo · Reuters / Reuters
“While shows up the procedure for the CagriSema test consisted of versatile application, and this brought about just ~ 57% of individuals getting to the greatest dosage of the product/contributed to the lower-than-expected avg weight reduction, Novo yf-1pe5jgtAs yf-1pe5jgt(* )information are well-below assumptions provided NVO mgmt.’s weight reduction effectiveness bar of 25%, ” the analysts wrote.
“>In addition, Lilly’s pill candidate is in the trial stage, further along than other competitors. If the drug, orforglipron, proves efficacious, it would further Lilly’s lead in the weight-loss market.
