Southeast Asian leaders joined their counterparts worldwide in congratulating Donald Trump on his US presidential victory, whereas nervously ready to see if his promised tariffs and protectionist measures had been mere marketing campaign politicking or correct forecasts of how he intends to control.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. stated he hoped the “unshakable alliance” between the 2 Mutual Defense Treaty allies would proceed to “be a force for good, blazing a path of prosperity and amity in the region, and in both sides of the Pacific. “
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim congratulated Trump on a “remarkable political comeback and victory,” whereas Hun Manet, the Cambodian premier, stated he’s “confident that the indispensable US role in promoting stability, security and prosperity will be further strengthened.”
Southeast Asia’s commerce issues
During the US election marketing campaign, most Southeast Asians had been paying shut consideration to Trump’s marketing campaign guarantees to impose a blanket 10%-20% tariff on imports from all nations — a frightening proposition for a area closely depending on exports to the US.
“Southeast Asia has had prior experience dealing with Trump and his administration, meaning that they are better prepared for the second Trump administration,” Le Hong Hiep, a senior fellow on the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s Vietnam Studies Program in Singapore, advised DW.
“While his victory may be disappointing to some countries, it is not a surprise,” Hiep added. “They will quickly adapt to the new reality and protect their interests.”
Bridget Welsh, an honorary analysis affiliate on the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute Malaysia, advised DW {that a} second Trump presidency will impression nations in a different way, with some centered solely on the commerce elements.
For others, just like the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam, there will probably be “heightened security risks,” as US protection ties are central for his or her safety amid China’s rising financial and navy energy.
Turbulent financial occasions
Zachary Abuza, a professor on the National War College in Washington, advised DW that Trump’s victory is “less consequential” for Southeast Asia than for Europe or Northeast Asia, the place America’s alliances, notably with Ukraine in its battle in opposition to Russia’s ongoing invasion, will probably be underneath appreciable stress.
But Vietnam, specifically, must be very involved, analysts say. It is the area’s largest exporter to the United States and, after Singapore, the nation most reliant on commerce for financial development.
During his first time period, Trump initially had good relations with Vietnam. However, relations soured in 2019 as Trump turned more and more annoyed at nations that loved massive commerce surpluses with the US. That yr, Trump referred to as Vietnam the world’s “worst abuser” of US commerce, worse than China, because the nation’s commerce surplus with America stood at round €51 billion that yr.
In its ultimate months, the primary Trump administration started formal proceedings to sanction Vietnam for alleged forex manipulation, though the Biden administration deserted this.
Hanoi has waited nervously for the US elections, realizing that its commerce surplus with the US spiked to €96 billion final yr.
But virtually each different Southeast Asian nation can be a internet exporter to the US, in order that they may even face the implications if Trump goes forward together with his risk to impose a ten%-20% tariff on imports of all items from all nations, on prime of his 60% tariff on all Chinese imports.
US-China relations and Southeast Asia
All Southeast Asian nations, besides Laos, rely the United States amongst their top-three export markets.
Oxford Economics, an advisory agency, just lately estimated that Trump’s proposed tariffs may result in a 3% fall in exports from “non-China Asia,” though poorer economies in Southeast Asia may expertise steeper declines.
These commerce impacts could possibly be equalized if Trump engages in an excellent harder commerce struggle in opposition to China the second time round.
“Southeast Asia will suffer in terms of GDP and trade as a share of GDP if Trump makes good on his tariff obsession,” Frederick Kleim, a analysis fellow on the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, advised DW.
“But perhaps less so than in other parts of the world, and Southeast Asia could also see some potential upsides.”
Some pundits reckon that Trump’s threatened 60% tariffs on Chinese imports may spark one other surge of divestment of world corporations from China, just like the flight of capital out of China skilled after the primary Trump administration started imposing tariffs on Chinese items in 2018.
Several Southeast Asian states, notably Vietnam and Malaysia, had been the most important beneficiaries of the sooner flight of funding away from China.
Not so dissimilar
Analysts who spoke to DW additionally agreed that whereas Trump is a extra “transactional” president than his predecessors, such diplomacy is regular in Southeast Asia.
Since most Southeast Asian states are both outright autocracies or, at finest, failed democracies, many leaders within the area might welcome a much less values-focused US international coverage.
“We don’t have it [democracy] here, we do not wish to adopt it, and we do not think of foreign affairs in value terms. Southeast Asian states, by and large, think in terms of national interest, just like Trump,” stated Kleim.
A much-reported survey of Southeast Asian elites this yr discovered that, for the primary time, respondents would select China over the United States.
Only 49.5% of the respondents favored the US within the 2024 iteration of the State of Southeast Asia Report, produced by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, in comparison with 61% in 2023.
Edited by: Keith Walker
