The Western Conference’s top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) will certainly encounter the fourth-seeded Denver Nuggets (50-32) in the 2nd round of the2025 NBA playoffs The 2 franchise business have actually not fulfilled in the playoffs considering that the opening round in 2011, when Kevin Durant’s Thunder made fast job of the Nuggets.
What we understand around Oklahoma City
The Thunder boggled the mind all period, sending the second-best web score (12.8) in NBA background and coming to be the 7th group ever before to win 68 video games throughout the normal period. Four of the 6 various other groups to do it– won the champion in the very same period. The various other 2 won a title within a year. It makes good sense, after that, that Oklahoma City is the wagering preferred to win this year’s crown, per BetMGM.
They are led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, that is likewise the preferred to win this year’s NBA MVP honor. He ended up second to Denver Nuggets super star Nikola Joki ć last period. Gilgeous-Alexander is absolutely nothing like Joki ć. He is a slim 6-foot-6 point player that knives his means right into any kind of hole in an opposing protection. He can rack up from anywhere, consisting of the free-throw line, where he reaches more frequently than any person. Gilgeous-Alexander’s stats– a league-leading 32.7 factors (on 52/38/90 capturing divides), 6.4 aids and 5 rebounds per video game– made his one of the most efficient period of any kind of guard considering that Michael Jordan.
SGA is partnered with Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, a set of fellow climbing celebrities. Both are two-way hazards in their very own means. Williams is a wing that develops for himself, likewise racking up from every degree, and safeguards all 5 settings. Holmgren, at the same time, is a 7-1, 215-pound rim-runner and -guard that can room the flooring to 3-point array. Together they may be one of the most gifted young triad in the organization.
They may be the inmost group in the NBA, as well. Isaiah Hartenstein opens a disastrous double-big schedule. Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso are protective bulldogs on the boundary. Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe room the flooring. There are unrestricted schedule mixes for head trainer Mark Daigneault.
Daigneault went 13 deep in their first-round collection versus the Memphis Grizzlies, though several of that was since they had lots of trash time. The Thunder walloped the Grizzlies, outscoring them by 78 factors over a four-game move. SGA, Williams and Holmgren were mind-blowing in the collection, as was nearly every person in the turning. It was the best encapsulation of this group that plays so well with each other.
What we understand around Denver
The NBA’s 2023 champs were strong, logging 50 success for a 3rd straight period. The superior efficiency of Joki ć– a three-time MVP that is commonly taken into consideration the most effective gamer on the planet– concealed what were some worrying fads, specifically on protection, where the Nuggets placed 21st.
Joki ć can offset a great deal. He balanced 29.6 factors (on 58/42/80 capturing divides), 12.7 rebounds, 10.2 aids and 1.8 swipes per video game throughout the normal period, ranking leading 3 in the NBA in each group. He sees the video game far better than any person, adjusting defenses with his strength in the paint, his skill on a funny-looking yet reliable outdoors shot or his capacity to locate any kind of open male on any kind of area on the flooring.
Complementing him are Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon,Michael Porter Jr and Christian Braun– 4 various other gifted participants of a beginning 5 that outscored challengers by 10.6 factors per 100 belongings.
Murray is a vibrant point player whose health and wellness constantly stays a problem. He and Joki ć type among one of the most hazardous two-man mixes in the video game. Gordon is a remarkable effective and sports onward that has actually boosted his shot from the boundary. And Porter is a 6-10 marksman whose non-shooting shoulder is an additional health and wellness issue. Together they are the residues of a champion core.
Depth is a concern. One- time MVP Russell Westbrook is their 6th male. His initiative is as regular as his efficiency is irregular. Beyond him are much more enigma. Peyton Watson is the just one of Denver’s young items that might be relied on for greater than 6 mins per video game in the opening round.
And that first-round collection versus the Los Angeles Clippers was seriously. The Clippers were much much deeper and most likely much more gifted, also if Joki ć was the most effective gamer in the seven-game collection. The Nuggets required everything from Joki ć, plus one 43-point video game from Murray and a cumulative initiative in your home in Game 7 to progress.
That initiative began part of acting head trainerDavid Adelman The Nuggets terminated long time head trainer Michael Malone with 3 video games staying in the normal period. Malone did not count on Denver’s young people, counting greatly on his six-man turning, and his protection was not carrying out to its criterion. It was far better under Adelman versus the Clippers, though the underlying concerns continue to be a problem versus the Thunder.
Head- to-head
The Thunder and Nuggets connected their regular-season collection, 2-2.
They divided a set in the very first 10 video games of the period and did the very same on back-to-back evenings inMarch Both groups were reasonably healthy and balanced for all 4 conferences, though Denver was missing out on both Murray and Gordon when the Nuggets beat Oklahoma City onNov 6, 124-122, many thanks to Westbrook’s 29 factors.
The March conferences were something of an MVPBowl The organization’s 2 leading prospects were amazing versus each various other. Gilgeous-Alexander completed 40 factors, 8 rebounds and 5 aids in a 127-103 success on one evening, and Joki ć went down a 35-18-8 in a 140-127 win the following evening. The MVP discussion alternated together with them, and neither prospect confiscated boasting legal rights over the various other.
Denver’s beginning schedule– Joki ć, Murray, Gordon, Porter and Braun– outscored the Thunder by 15.2 factors per 100 belongings over 31 mins. That is urging. The bench, nonetheless, was not. This will deserve keeping an eye on all collection: Can the Nuggets endure any kind of of their mins without Joki ć on the court?
Conversely, OKC’s double-big schedule, including Holmgren and Hartenstein along with SGA, Williams and Dort, outscored Denver by 34.8 factors per 100 belongings in 24 mins. Expect to see a great deal of that, as the smaller sized Thunder attempt to restrict Joki ć’s influence. Neither Holmgren neither Hartenstein can protect him alone.
Matchup to enjoy
Nikola Joki ć vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
The 2 will certainly not protect each various other, yet begin: These are the NBA’s leading 2 MVP prospects, and they will certainly encounter each various other in the playoffs. This has actually not taken place considering that James Harden and Russell Westbrook fulfilled as both leading MVP prospects in the preliminary of the 2017 playoffs. (Harden won that collection, 4-1.)
The Nuggets were -6 over Joki ć’s 156 mins versus the Thunder this period. They were -18 in his 36 mins unemployed. On the various other hand, Oklahoma City was +4 in Gilgeous-Alexander’s 147 mins versus Denver this period and +20 in his 45 mins off the flooring. That informs us it ought to be close when these 2 tangle on the court with each other, which ought to be for 40+ mins an evening. That is a great deal of enjoyable.
It will certainly be a great examination of each prospect’s worth. Neither group actually has a person to protect the various other’s ideal gamer. Joki ć perseverance his means to the edge. SGA will certainly sculpt his means there. Both will certainly generate– a great deal.
If Joki ć and Gilgeous-Alexander are as extraordinary as we anticipate them to be, the real distinction in this collection might boil down to their particular partners, Murray andWilliams Murray has actually been a playoff god in years past, though not as long as the Nuggets would certainly such as of late. Williams is 24 years of ages and has actually just been right here in a second-round collection as soon as in the past. His young people will certainly be checked as long as Murray’s incongruity.
Crunch- time schedules
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Holmgren and Dort are pillars of Oklahoma City’s shutting schedule. That quartet ended up the normal period +13.5 factors per 100 non-garbage belongings, per Cleaning the Glass.
Daigneault opted for Caruso as a 5th choice– and a 3rd guard– versus the Grizzlies in the opening round, a minimum of in minority clutch mins of the collection. Going smaller sized is not constantly a great concept versus Joki ć and Gordon, both of whom can penalize on the inside. Expect some Hartenstein instead of Caruso, just if Denver’s dimension ends up being a trouble. Hartenstein and Holmgren likewise outscored challengers by 13.5 purposeful belongings throughout the normal period. Essentially, Daigneault has no scarcity of tools.
Denver Nuggets
Joki ć, Murray, Gordon and Braun will certainly get on the flooring when video games are limited in the 4th quarter, unless something is incorrect. That a lot we understand. They were one hell of a foursome throughout the normal period, outscoring challengers by 15.5 factors per 100 purposeful belongings, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Against the Clippers, Adelman more frequently relied on Westbrook over Porter for the 5th area, which certainly had even more to do with Porter’s shoulder injury than Westbrook’s steadier hand. Porter’s mins with the 4 various other beginners in were much more reliable versus the Thunder throughout the normal period.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
Joki ć can just bring so hefty a problem. Gilgeous-Alexander’s manufacturing will certainly reduce a lot of Joki ć’s supremacy, and the Thunder’s deepness will certainly win, wearing down the Nuggets throughout a best-of-seven collection. But not prior to the single champs swipe a number of success versus an all-time excellent lineup.
Series wagering probabilities
Oklahoma City Thunder: -800
Denver Nuggets: +550
Series timetable (perpetuity Eastern)
Game 1: Monday @ Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m., TNT)
Game 2: Wed., May 7 @ Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m., TNT)
Game 3: Fri., May 9 @ Denver (10 p.m., ESPN)
Game 4: Sun., May 11 @ Denver (3:30 p.m., ABC)
*Game 5: Tue., May 13 @ Oklahoma City (TBD, TNT)
*Game 6: Thu., May 15 @ Denver (TBD, ESPN)
* Game 7: Sun., May 18 @ Oklahoma City (TBD)
* if required
