Major financial institutions’ forecasts in advance of Tuesday conference

Canstar has analysed how much mortgage holders can save based on a $600,000 loan with 25 years remaining.

If CBA and Westpac are correct, borrowers will see a $357 drop in their monthly repayments by December 2025.

If NAB is right and there is one additional cut, that would save mortgage holders $442 on their monthly repayments.

If ANZ is correct, mortgage holders would only see their repayments drop by $270 per month.

But these figures will all depend on whether or not the banks pass on the RBA interest rate cuts to customers in full.

Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said there was “no guarantee” of when interest rates would drop, how many and just how much the banks would pass on.

“The RBA has been clear it will be driven by the data and data can be volatile,” she said.

“If you do want rate relief, take matters into your own hands.”

Canstar’s data found that if an owner-occupier with a $600,000 mortgage a year ago to a rate of 6 per cent, they could have potentially saved as much as $6,600.

All economists and experts surveyed for Finder’s Cash Rate Survey expect the RBA will hold interest rates at its November meeting.

More than three-quarters of those surveyed (78 per cent) forecast a rate cut in the first three meetings of the year. This would be in February, April or May.

“Inflation is likely still too high to see the RBA cutting inNovember But it is falling and likely to continue to do so resulting in a start to rate cuts in February next year,” AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said.

“A December cut is still possible but would need to see a further sharp fall in underlying inflation in October monthly data along with a renewed rise in unemployment.”

Bendigo Bank chief economist David Robertson has forecast the first cut in May next year.

“The quarterly inflation data continued the pleasing trend of moderating inflation in line with our forecast of rate cuts next year, but not sufficient progress with core inflation to change our view that the first cut is most likely inMay It would be helpful if that first cut is 35 basis points to an even 4 per cent,” he said.

Economist Saul Eslake said the latest inflation figures were in line with the RBA’s expectations and “not ‘good’ enough to give it the confidence it needs … to justify cutting rates in either November or December”.

“However the December quarter CPI numbers due in late January should be good enough to allow for a rate cut in February,” he said.

RBA governor Michele Bullock has repeatedly told borrowers not to expect an interest cut rate in the “near-term”.

“The message clearly from the board is that in the near-term it does not see interest rate cuts,” Bullock said after the September meeting.

The RBA decision will come at 2:30pm on Tuesday, followed by a press conference with Bullock.

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